The Duration of the Next War

"Il s'agit d'une guerre entre l'Allemagne et la France" roughly translates as "This is a war between Germany and France"

This is another in our "outputting-ly accurate predictions about World War I" series. Published in 1912, two years before the outbreak of the Great War, it attempts to deduce the duration of the war and the factors that will affect it. The author makes clear at the beginning that what follows is opinion, and the chapters then survey the writings of military men, history, and rational analysis. The author conclude early on that Germany will fight a war allied with Austria against Russia, France, and England. They then review the manpower, materiel, munitions, finances, "morals", and political systems of each country to understand how important they might be in the coming conflict. It then reviews strategic considerations before making its conclusions. I'd comment on it, but instead I'll leave you with some choice translated quotes...

"[the war] between a united Germany and Austria will have to cope with Russia, France and England." (15)

"even after its best army is met with disaster, a nation that does not want to die has not lost." (18)

"One is forced to recognize that the coming war will not be limited to one big battle" (27)

It outlines that at some point the intensity of the war will totally undermine national economies, industry, and agriculture which will cause strong pressures on governments to end the war. "Will this critical moment come at the end of three, four, or five months?...we have no serious basis for knowing this" (31)

"We must fight the idea, within the populace, that the next war will be decided and will finish after the first large battle" (32)

"Final victory will certainly come to the people with the most tenacity" (32)


Prophetic stuff...

Official Secrets and Official History

We pulled three copies of this out of one box. You may notice that it has two "confidential" stamps on it. It was published in 1926 but the Foreign Office, India Office, and Government of India objected to it because it contained details of secret wartime negotiations with Persian authorities, particularly over oil. Efforts were made to expunge the objectionable material but the author, Brigadier-General Frederick Moberly, stood his ground. In the end 500 copies were printed with 350 kept in Britain and stamped "confidential" and 150 going to India and stamped "Secret". Nothing is known about the copies sent to India, and only a few of the original "confidential" British copies still exist.

We know all of this because someone pasted a copy of a Guardian newspaper clip detailing all of this when the volume was declassified, the article is dated 27 October 1987.



It says that the U.K. Government issued a reprint when it was declassified, but these copies are labeled "confidential" which means they were part of the original print! One of the copies has this sticker on the front with detailed instructions about returning it because it was confidential:


If that newspaper article wouldn't have been pasted in we never would have known, so thank you to whoever thought to put it in there! An interesting example of the perils of official history.

I'm off the project as I'm heading off to the National Archives in Ottawa for the summer to do research about Dollar-a-Year Men in WWII Canada, but I've drafted a number of posts and will throw them up over the next couple of weeks. All the best Project Chicksands!

The Probabilities of a Franco-German War

The Chicksands Collection has had quite a few French and German books mixed in, and since there is quite a bit of older material - by North American standards anyway - we come across a lot of material published in France and Germany during both World Wars. They give you a bit of a window into the issues of the day and the attitudes towards fighting another war. I've also seen quite a few books from just before the wars broke out speculating on the coming war. While there will always be voices that predict the next war - some will be right, some will be wrong - we've come across some surprisingly accurate predictions! For example...



"Les Probabilités d'une Guerre Franco-Allemande" translates as The Probability of a Franco-German War and notice it was published in 1913, about a year before the start of World War One. It could just be some wild speculation, but some of the conclusions are shockingly close to what would happen. The first chapter does a short survey of past Franco-German wars. The second chapter discusses how the next European war must include Germany, how England's "splendid isolation" will be broken and England will enter the war against Germany, and then goes on to look at the role of Austro-Hungary, the Balkans, and Russia with the chapter concluding that "An Austro-Russian war is a probable eventuality, perhaps very soon." The next chapter concludes that, "A Franco-German war will most likely result from a war between Austria and Russia."

While it is staggering how exact the future seems to be predicted, the most unsettling part of reading this work is that it doesn't talk about if a war between France and Germany will happen but when it will happen. It continually uses phrases like "the coming war" and "when war does finally happen." You get the sense from reading it that war was a foregone conclusion, everyone was instead focused on how to win it.

I'll try to find out more about the author and post about who he was at a later date!

The Occupation of Belgium

The German plan of attack in WWI called for a quick war to knock out France while the Russian army mobilized, thereby avoiding a two front war. To do this they created The Schlieffen Plan which called for the German Army to go around the main French defenses on the French-German border by marching through Belgium. When the major opening battles were finished the Germans were left in control of most of Belgium, and they installed the General Governorate of Belgium, a military system to administer the country. That's where this curious book comes in...

click to enlarge

The text on that page roughly translates as:

Law and Official Gazette of the occupied territories of Belgium

contains
the
laws, regulations and notices

from 1 january to march 31 1917

(from nr. including 295 to 327)

Brussel

published by the political department at the Governor General in Belgium. To be obtained in Belgium by the print shop of the Act and Official Gazette, Brussel, lowenerstr. 40 in Germany and in neutral countries by the German post offices

This is a journal of the "laws, regulations and notices" passed by the Germans controlling Belgium. If you look at the photo again you'll notice that there are two stamps in the top left corner by the General Staff Library in the War Office on 30 April and 17 October 1917, which means we know this books was printed and published during the war. This begs the question: How did the British manage to get a copy of this while the war was still being fought? Any ideas?