The Duration of the Next War

"Il s'agit d'une guerre entre l'Allemagne et la France" roughly translates as "This is a war between Germany and France"

This is another in our "outputting-ly accurate predictions about World War I" series. Published in 1912, two years before the outbreak of the Great War, it attempts to deduce the duration of the war and the factors that will affect it. The author makes clear at the beginning that what follows is opinion, and the chapters then survey the writings of military men, history, and rational analysis. The author conclude early on that Germany will fight a war allied with Austria against Russia, France, and England. They then review the manpower, materiel, munitions, finances, "morals", and political systems of each country to understand how important they might be in the coming conflict. It then reviews strategic considerations before making its conclusions. I'd comment on it, but instead I'll leave you with some choice translated quotes...

"[the war] between a united Germany and Austria will have to cope with Russia, France and England." (15)

"even after its best army is met with disaster, a nation that does not want to die has not lost." (18)

"One is forced to recognize that the coming war will not be limited to one big battle" (27)

It outlines that at some point the intensity of the war will totally undermine national economies, industry, and agriculture which will cause strong pressures on governments to end the war. "Will this critical moment come at the end of three, four, or five months?...we have no serious basis for knowing this" (31)

"We must fight the idea, within the populace, that the next war will be decided and will finish after the first large battle" (32)

"Final victory will certainly come to the people with the most tenacity" (32)


Prophetic stuff...

The Probabilities of a Franco-German War

The Chicksands Collection has had quite a few French and German books mixed in, and since there is quite a bit of older material - by North American standards anyway - we come across a lot of material published in France and Germany during both World Wars. They give you a bit of a window into the issues of the day and the attitudes towards fighting another war. I've also seen quite a few books from just before the wars broke out speculating on the coming war. While there will always be voices that predict the next war - some will be right, some will be wrong - we've come across some surprisingly accurate predictions! For example...



"Les Probabilités d'une Guerre Franco-Allemande" translates as The Probability of a Franco-German War and notice it was published in 1913, about a year before the start of World War One. It could just be some wild speculation, but some of the conclusions are shockingly close to what would happen. The first chapter does a short survey of past Franco-German wars. The second chapter discusses how the next European war must include Germany, how England's "splendid isolation" will be broken and England will enter the war against Germany, and then goes on to look at the role of Austro-Hungary, the Balkans, and Russia with the chapter concluding that "An Austro-Russian war is a probable eventuality, perhaps very soon." The next chapter concludes that, "A Franco-German war will most likely result from a war between Austria and Russia."

While it is staggering how exact the future seems to be predicted, the most unsettling part of reading this work is that it doesn't talk about if a war between France and Germany will happen but when it will happen. It continually uses phrases like "the coming war" and "when war does finally happen." You get the sense from reading it that war was a foregone conclusion, everyone was instead focused on how to win it.

I'll try to find out more about the author and post about who he was at a later date!