The Duration of the Next War

"Il s'agit d'une guerre entre l'Allemagne et la France" roughly translates as "This is a war between Germany and France"

This is another in our "outputting-ly accurate predictions about World War I" series. Published in 1912, two years before the outbreak of the Great War, it attempts to deduce the duration of the war and the factors that will affect it. The author makes clear at the beginning that what follows is opinion, and the chapters then survey the writings of military men, history, and rational analysis. The author conclude early on that Germany will fight a war allied with Austria against Russia, France, and England. They then review the manpower, materiel, munitions, finances, "morals", and political systems of each country to understand how important they might be in the coming conflict. It then reviews strategic considerations before making its conclusions. I'd comment on it, but instead I'll leave you with some choice translated quotes...

"[the war] between a united Germany and Austria will have to cope with Russia, France and England." (15)

"even after its best army is met with disaster, a nation that does not want to die has not lost." (18)

"One is forced to recognize that the coming war will not be limited to one big battle" (27)

It outlines that at some point the intensity of the war will totally undermine national economies, industry, and agriculture which will cause strong pressures on governments to end the war. "Will this critical moment come at the end of three, four, or five months?...we have no serious basis for knowing this" (31)

"We must fight the idea, within the populace, that the next war will be decided and will finish after the first large battle" (32)

"Final victory will certainly come to the people with the most tenacity" (32)


Prophetic stuff...

Cataloguer's Progress

This 'Catalogue of English Official Military Works' compiled by Basil Soulsby was, he believed, "the first of its kind." Soulsby, an assistant in the Department of Printed Books at the British Museum, inscribed a dedication on the cover of this particular copy. It reads:

"The Right Hon. H. Campbell-Bannerman M.P. with the compiler's compliments 16, Jan. 1894."

Soulsby and Campbell-Bannerman both achieved great success in their careers - Soulsby eventually became Director of the General Library at the Natural History Museum in London, and Campbell-Bannerman (who was Secretary of State for War at the time of this dedication) would go on to lead the Liberal government as Prime Minister from 1905 to 1908.

Official Secrets and Official History

We pulled three copies of this out of one box. You may notice that it has two "confidential" stamps on it. It was published in 1926 but the Foreign Office, India Office, and Government of India objected to it because it contained details of secret wartime negotiations with Persian authorities, particularly over oil. Efforts were made to expunge the objectionable material but the author, Brigadier-General Frederick Moberly, stood his ground. In the end 500 copies were printed with 350 kept in Britain and stamped "confidential" and 150 going to India and stamped "Secret". Nothing is known about the copies sent to India, and only a few of the original "confidential" British copies still exist.

We know all of this because someone pasted a copy of a Guardian newspaper clip detailing all of this when the volume was declassified, the article is dated 27 October 1987.



It says that the U.K. Government issued a reprint when it was declassified, but these copies are labeled "confidential" which means they were part of the original print! One of the copies has this sticker on the front with detailed instructions about returning it because it was confidential:


If that newspaper article wouldn't have been pasted in we never would have known, so thank you to whoever thought to put it in there! An interesting example of the perils of official history.

I'm off the project as I'm heading off to the National Archives in Ottawa for the summer to do research about Dollar-a-Year Men in WWII Canada, but I've drafted a number of posts and will throw them up over the next couple of weeks. All the best Project Chicksands!

Defenseless America

This work is about how the United States possesses an inferior defense network and is open to attack by foreign aggressors, and was published in 1915 while America remained neutral in the Great War. It was written by Hudson Maxim, the co-inventor of smokeless gunpowder, and brother of Hiram Maxim, the inventor of the Maxim Machine Gun, which makes the book interesting enough in itself.

But the copy we pulled out of the box when unpacking is signed by the author, take a look...



That's right! It was signed and sent to Lord Kitchener, yes...probably THAT Lord Kitchener. Kitchener died on 5 June 1916 when his ship hit a German mine. I can't make out the last number in the date of the dedication, it seems to be May 17, 191?...if that number is a 4 or a 5 as I suspect, then this is quite a piece of history!



It is first stamped into the War Office Library in 1917 which means that, assuming that the dedication date is in 1914 or 1915, it went into Lord Kitchener's library and was donated to the War Office Library after his death.

Anyone want to take a guess? What year is that!?

The London Blitz

They’ll Never Quit, by Harvey Klemmer. Wilfred Funk, New York, 1941

Right after the title page of this book is a Preliminary Note which pointedly reads:

This book has not been censored. I purposely waited until I had left England before writing it, as, although I sympathize with Britain in her struggle against the Nazis, I did not wish to be hampered in my efforts to present to the people of America a true picture of the Blitzkrieg.

No information contained in this book was secured as a result of my official connection with the American Embassy in London. The opinions expressed are, of course, my own.

The Author

Washington, D.C.

February 6, 1941

London during the Blitz of 1940

Behind this note, lies the story of a political viewpoint at war with a personal relationship. Klemmer served in the US Embassy in London as part of the Maritime Commission. He was personally recruited by then US Ambassador Joseph Kennedy. While the two remained friends throughout their lives, their political viewpoints were widely divergent. Kennedy, in common with Charles Lindbergh, admired Hitler and felt that Germany would easily win the European War. Klemmer, while careful to remain loyal personally to Kennedy, supported the British cause and felt that London and the British Commonwealth would persevere against the Nazi war machine and the Blitz – hence, the title of his book. Following Kennedy's 1940 recall to Washington, it was Klemmer who persuaded him not to support the Germans publicly and to, if grudgingly, endorse Franklin Roosevelt as a candidate for President. It is ironic that Kennedy’s two oldest sons, Joseph Jr. and John, both fought in the war and that Joe Jr. was killed in a mission against Germany.

After the war, Klemmer worked with Averell Harriman on the Lend-Lease programme implementation. Returning to his work in the US State Department, Klemmer officially retired in 1960 but remained active as US liaison with numerous Far East governments for many more years. He died in 1992, in his 92^nd year.

An advance in the Great Game

Bhotan and the story of the Doar War, by Dr. David Field Rennie. Published 1970 by Manjusri Publishing House in New Delhi, No. 695 of a limited edition of 1000 copies. The original was published in 1866 by John Murray in London, as Bhotan and the story of the Dooar War, including sketches of a three months’ residence in the Himalayas, and narrative of a visit to Bhotan in May 1865, by Surgeon Rennie, M.D., 20th Hussars.

From Wikipedia: Britain sent a peace mission to Bhutan in early 1864, in the wake of the recent conclusion of a civil war there. The dzongpon of Punakha—who had emerged victorious—had broken with the central government and set up a rival Druk Desi while the legitimate Druk Desi sought the protection of the ponlop of Paro and was later deposed. The British mission dealt alternately with the rival ponlop of Paro and the ponlop of Tongsa (the latter acted on behalf of the Druk Desi), but Bhutan rejected the peace and friendship treaty it offered. Britain declared war in November 1864. Bhutan had no regular army, and what forces existed were composed of dzong guards armed with matchlocks, bows and arrows, swords, knives, and catapults. Some of these dzong guards, carrying shields and wearing chainmail armor, engaged the well-equipped British forces.[13] The Duar War (1864–65) lasted only five months and, despite some battlefield victories by Bhutanese forces, resulted in Bhutan's defeat, loss of part of its sovereign territory, and forced cession of formerly occupied territories. Under the terms of the Treaty of Sinchula, signed on November 11, 1865, Bhutan ceded territories in the Assam Duars and Bengal Duars, as well as the eighty-three-square-kilometer territory of Dewangiri in southeastern Bhutan, in return for an annual subsidy of 50,000 rupees.[13]

The British were constantly trying to extend and consolidate their borders in and around India and the Himalayas and access into and through Bhutan was an important goal of the Great Game. Famous in espionage annals from Rudyard Kipling’s Kim to the 2010 publication, The Horse That Leaps Through Clouds: A Tale of Espionage, the Silk Road and the Rise of Modern China by Eric Enno Tamm, the Great Game was a see-saw battle of wits, one-upmanship, secret forays and behind-the-scenes alliances to decide whether the British or the Russians would control central Asia. A foothold in Bhutan was a strategic advance for the British, who maintained cordial relations with this independent Kingdom from that date on.


A view of the current Bhutanese cavalry heading towards a border patrol

An Interesting Dedication

Strange Fighters, We British! by Trevor Evans (Industrial Correspondent of the “Daily Express”) – published in 1941, about the events of 1941 – the dedication reads:

“This book is respectfully dedicated to all who work for the victory of Britain. It is disrespectfully presented as a token of contempt for those, whoever they may be, who by their inefficiency, their indifference, or their enmity interfere with the production of our factories or impede the toil of those who work therein.”

The American Civil War and the Grand Trunk Railway

There are numerous books on the American Civil War in the Chicksands Collection, written from both sides of the conflict. One of these is entitled Confederate view of the treatment of prisoners compiled from official records and other documents, by Rev. J. William Jones, D.D., Secretary Southern Historical society – published in Richmond Va by the Society in 1876.

The Chicksands copy is inscribed on the fly leaf: Sir Henry Tyler, with compliments of J. Wm. Jones. Secy. S.H.S. Richmond Oct 2nd 1877

According to an article by David S. Williams in the Georgia Encyclopedia, Jones (1836-1909) was known as "the evangelist of the Lost Cause". Jones, a native Virginian, belonged to the first class of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary and was ordained in 1860. During the war “the fighting parson” helped form the Chaplains Association of the Army of Northern Virginia, and served troops under Generals A. P. Hill, Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson, and Robert E. Lee, with whom he had personal friendships.

After the war Jones became embroiled in Lost Cause apologetics, arguing that the South had waged a just and holy war, and that the Confederacy produced "the noblest army . . . that ever marched under any banner or fought for any cause in all the tide of time." He held the powerful position of secretary-treasurer of the Southern Historical Society for more than a decade (1875-87) and edited fourteen volumes of the society's Papers, the major organ for the dissemination of Lost Cause ideology.

In his final years Jones lectured and preached widely. His standard prayer opening wedded his two passions: "Oh, God! Our God, our help in years gone by, our hope for years to come—God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, God of Israel, God of the centuries, God of our fathers, God of Jefferson Davis, Robert Edward Lee, and Stonewall Jackson, Lord of hosts and King of kings."
Jones’ connection with Tyler is problematic; the two men seem to have nothing in common but Tyler himself is an interesting figure with a Canadian connection.

Sir Henry Whatley Tyler (1827-1908) was a railway man, rising to the position of Inspector of Railways and Company director before turning to politics, sitting as a Conservative MP from 1880 to 1892. He attended the Royal Military Academy in Woolwich and joined the Royal Engineers. In 1851, at the rank of lieutenant, he assisted Henry Cole with organizing the Great Exhibition in London. Following his appointment to Chief Inspector of Railways he spent much time on travel and planning and in 1874 was in America, inspecting the Erie system. He was a member of the abortive Channel Tunnel Commission in 1875 to 1876.

Retiring from the civil service, Tyler became President of the Grand Trunk Railway of Canada in 1877, the position he held when this book, one of the many Jones compiled, was presented to him.

The Probabilities of a Franco-German War

The Chicksands Collection has had quite a few French and German books mixed in, and since there is quite a bit of older material - by North American standards anyway - we come across a lot of material published in France and Germany during both World Wars. They give you a bit of a window into the issues of the day and the attitudes towards fighting another war. I've also seen quite a few books from just before the wars broke out speculating on the coming war. While there will always be voices that predict the next war - some will be right, some will be wrong - we've come across some surprisingly accurate predictions! For example...



"Les Probabilités d'une Guerre Franco-Allemande" translates as The Probability of a Franco-German War and notice it was published in 1913, about a year before the start of World War One. It could just be some wild speculation, but some of the conclusions are shockingly close to what would happen. The first chapter does a short survey of past Franco-German wars. The second chapter discusses how the next European war must include Germany, how England's "splendid isolation" will be broken and England will enter the war against Germany, and then goes on to look at the role of Austro-Hungary, the Balkans, and Russia with the chapter concluding that "An Austro-Russian war is a probable eventuality, perhaps very soon." The next chapter concludes that, "A Franco-German war will most likely result from a war between Austria and Russia."

While it is staggering how exact the future seems to be predicted, the most unsettling part of reading this work is that it doesn't talk about if a war between France and Germany will happen but when it will happen. It continually uses phrases like "the coming war" and "when war does finally happen." You get the sense from reading it that war was a foregone conclusion, everyone was instead focused on how to win it.

I'll try to find out more about the author and post about who he was at a later date!

The Occupation of Belgium

The German plan of attack in WWI called for a quick war to knock out France while the Russian army mobilized, thereby avoiding a two front war. To do this they created The Schlieffen Plan which called for the German Army to go around the main French defenses on the French-German border by marching through Belgium. When the major opening battles were finished the Germans were left in control of most of Belgium, and they installed the General Governorate of Belgium, a military system to administer the country. That's where this curious book comes in...

click to enlarge

The text on that page roughly translates as:

Law and Official Gazette of the occupied territories of Belgium

contains
the
laws, regulations and notices

from 1 january to march 31 1917

(from nr. including 295 to 327)

Brussel

published by the political department at the Governor General in Belgium. To be obtained in Belgium by the print shop of the Act and Official Gazette, Brussel, lowenerstr. 40 in Germany and in neutral countries by the German post offices

This is a journal of the "laws, regulations and notices" passed by the Germans controlling Belgium. If you look at the photo again you'll notice that there are two stamps in the top left corner by the General Staff Library in the War Office on 30 April and 17 October 1917, which means we know this books was printed and published during the war. This begs the question: How did the British manage to get a copy of this while the war was still being fought? Any ideas?